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The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence

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Rausch, Manuel ; Zehetleitner, Michael:
The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence.
In: PLoS Computational Biology. Bd. 15 (21. Oktober 2019) Heft 10: e1007456. - 18 S.
ISSN 1553-734X ; 1553-7358

Volltext

Link zum Volltext (externe URL): https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007456

Kurzfassung/Abstract

Recent studies have traced the neural correlates of confidence in perceptual choices using statistical signatures of confidence. The most widely used statistical signature is the folded X-pattern, which was derived from a standard model of confidence assuming an objective definition of confidence as the posterior probability of making the correct choice given the evidence. The folded X-pattern entails that confidence as the subjective probability of being correct equals the probability 0.75 if the stimulus in neutral about the choice options, increases with discriminability of the stimulus in correct trials, and decreases with discriminability in incorrect trials. Here, we show that the standard model of confidence is a special case in which there is no reliable trial-by-trial evidence about discriminability itself. According to a more general model, if there is enough evidence about discriminability, objective confidence is characterised by different pattern: For both correct and incorrect choices, confidence increases with discriminability. In addition, we demonstrate the consequence if discriminability is varied in discrete steps within the standard model: confidence in choices about neutral stimuli is no longer .75. Overall, identifying neural correlates of confidence by presupposing the folded X-pattern as a statistical signature of confidence is not legitimate.

Weitere Angaben

Publikationsform:Artikel
Zusätzliche Informationen:Reproduceable computer code and all results reported in the paper are available onlineat the open science framewor kwebsite (https://osf.io/pfsqz/).
Schlagwörter:confidence, metacognition, decision making, perception, certainty, Bayesian brain theory
Institutionen der Universität:Philosophisch-Pädagogische Fakultät > Psychologie > Psychologie II - Professur für Allgemeine Psychologie II
DOI / URN / ID:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007456
Open Access: Freie Zugänglichkeit des Volltexts?:Ja
Peer-Review-Journal:Ja
Titel an der KU entstanden:Ja
Eingestellt am:05. Nov 2019 13:35
Letzte Änderung:11. Feb 2020 09:59
URL zu dieser Anzeige:http://edoc.ku-eichstaett.de/23503/